Two Recent Reports from ULI Look to Future

Two recent reports have been released by the Urban Land Institute(ULI), one looking to next year and the other looking further into the future.

"After three years of dislocation and unprecedented loss, commercial real estate industry investors and professionals hint at hopeful signs of tempered commercial real estate market improvements, according to respondents of the Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2011  report, released today by PwC US and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). "

In the midst of economic uncertainty, there are still some elements of certainty – such as  demographic shifts, financial industry restructuring, global competitiveness, and sustainable building – that will guide real estate investment and reshape urban growth trends in the years ahead, according to a new report from the Urban Land Institute (ULI).  

Finding Certainty in Uncertain Times, a collection of commentaries from ULI’s five senior resident fellows Stephen Blank, Edward McMahon, John McIlwain, Thomas Murphy and Michael Horst, examines trends in population growth, consumer housing preferences, employment, real estate finance, environmental conservation, energy efficiency, venture capital investment and public leadership. These factors, according to Finding Certainty, are converging to shape a new era of urban economics within which cities and urban regions will have to compete in order to be successful in the 21st century. “These trends will continue regardless of location, of which political party is in power, and of how quickly we recover from the recession,” says the report. “Taken collectively, they will create the ‘new normal.’"Source: ULI

Visit my web site for real estate services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA] and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land, Investment).

Copyright 2010 by Lawrence Yerkes. All Rights Reserved.

Fannie Mae Launches "Refi Plus" Program

Fannie Mae launched their "Refi Plus" program, which is designed to provides streamlined refinance processing.  It is an effort to help homeowners lower the cost of their mortgages through refinancing. For more details and to access their refinancing calculator, got to:

LowerMyBills.com Home Refinance Calculator page.

Visit my web site for real estate services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA] and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land, Investment).

Copyright 2010 by Lawrence Yerkes. All Rights Reserved.

Federal Reserve Beige Book Report October 2010 Report

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that, on balance, national economic activity continued to rise, albeit at a modest pace, during the reporting period from September to early October.

Manufacturing activity continued to expand, with production and new orders rising across most Districts. Demand for nonfinancial services was reported to be stable to modestly increasing overall. Consumer spending was steady to up slightly, but consumers remained price-sensitive, and purchases were mostly limited to necessities and nondiscretionary items. New vehicle sales held steady or rose during the reporting period; sales of used automobiles were strong as well. Activity in the travel and tourism sector picked up.

Housing markets remained weak with most Districts reporting sales below year-ago levels. Reports on prices suggested stability, however. Conditions in the commercial real estate sector were subdued, and construction was expected to remain weak. Lending activity was stable in most Districts. Agricultural conditions were generally favorable, and above-average yields were expected in most reporting Districts. Activity in the energy sector continued to expand.

Input costs, most notably for agricultural commodities and industrial metals, rose further. Shipping rates increased, and retailers in some Districts noted rising wholesale prices. However, prices of final goods and services were mostly stable as higher input costs were not passed on to consumers. Wage pressures were minimal.

In the Third District, business activity has been mixed since the last Beige Book. Manufacturers, on balance, reported slight decreases in shipments and new orders in September. Retailers posted modest year-over-year increases in sales during the back-to-school shopping period. Motor vehicle dealers generally reported steady sales in September and year-over-year gains for the month. Third District banks reported level loan volume outstanding in the past few weeks. Residential real estate agents indicated that sales of existing homes have edged up in the past few weeks, but homebuilders indicated a mostly flat sales pace for new homes. Contacts in the commercial real estate sector said there has been practically no change in market conditions since the last Beige Book. Service-sector firms reported mostly marginal increases in activity in the past month. Business contacts indicated that prices of most goods and services have shown no change, although there were continued reports of rising prices for metals and new reports of increases in lumber prices. Some retailers said there have been increases in some wholesale prices and international freight charges.
Source Beige Book
The outlook among Third District business contacts is positive, on balance, but not robust. Manufacturers forecast a rise in shipments and orders during the next six months. Retailers expect sales to expand slightly through the end of the year. Bankers expect only minimal growth in lending in the near term. Contacts in both residential and commercial real estate expect flat to slowly rising activity into the middle of 2011. Service-sector companies also expect slow growth during the next six months.



Click here for the Federal Reserve October 2010 Beige Book [Beige Book Archives]

See related blog articles:
Federal Reserve Beige Book For Economic Conditions (What is the "Beige Book"?)

The Federal Reserve - Making Sense In Plain English


Visit my web site for real estate services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA]  and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land).

Copyright 2010 by Lawrence Yerkes. All Rights Reserved.

EIA Expects Modest Rise in Home Heating Costs This Winter

The October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), forecasts a modest rise in heating bills for many U.S. consumers.

"EIA expects household bills for space-heating fuels will be about 3 percent higher than a year ago, with the average household spending $986 in the October through March winter heating season, an increase of $24 from last winter," said EIA Administrator Richard Newell.

The higher bills primarily reflect higher fuel prices, although expected colder weather than last winter in the Northeast will also contribute to more fuel use. EIA expects the largest increases in fuel expenses to be in households using propane and heating oil. Households using electricity for space heating, particularly in the South, should see lower average fuel bills, in part due to expected warmer weather.

These average forecasts provide a broad guide to changes from last winter, but fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on local weather conditions, the size and efficiency of individual homes, their heating equipment, and thermostat settings.

Key points:

• EIA expects the lower-48 States to be 3 percent warmer during the October through March winter heating season compared with last winter and 1 percent warmer than the 30-year average (1971-2000), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's most recent projections of heating degree-days. Regional heating degree-day projections vary widely.

• EIA expects households heating primarily with natural gas to spend an average of $27 (4 percent) more this winter than last winter. The 4-percent increase in natural gas expenditures reflects a 6-percent increase in prices and a 2-percent decrease in consumption. About 52 percent of all U.S. households depend on natural gas as their primary heating fuel.

• EIA expects households heating primarily with heating oil to spend an average of about $220 (12 percent) more this winter. The Northeast accounts for 80 percent of U.S. heating oil consumption. EIA forecasts the average Northeast household will spend 13 percent more ($259) than last winter as a result of a 5-percent increase in consumption and 8 percent higher regional prices than last winter.

• Households heating primarily with electricity can expect to spend an average of $18 (2 percent) less this winter. The 2-percent decline in electricity expenditures reflects a 2-percent increase in prices and a 4-percent decline in consumption. About 37 percent of all U.S. households rely on electricity as their primary heating fuel, ranging from 13 percent in the Northeast to 61 percent in the South.

• EIA expects households heating primarily with propane to spend an average of $136 (8 percent) more this winter, but that increase varies across regions. About 6 percent of all U.S. households heat with propane.

• Energy prices remain volatile, reflecting uncertainty, or risk, in the market. To measure this uncertainty, the Outlook reports confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil and natural gas futures prices using a measure of implied volatility derived from the NYMEX options markets (see Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty).

Short-Term Energy Outlook can be found at: http://www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html  

Visit my web site for real estate services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA] and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land, Investment).

Copyright 2010 by Lawrence Yerkes. All Rights Reserved.

HouseLogic Launches Campaign to Help Military Families Sustain Homeownership

The National Association of Realtors®’(NAR) HouseLogic, a free, comprehensive consumer website about all aspects of homeownership, today launched Operation Home Relief, a new Facebook Causes campaign. The campaign aims to increase awareness, rally support and raise funding for USA Cares, a nonprofit organization that provides counseling and financial foreclosure assistance to post-9/11 active duty U.S. military service personnel, veterans and their families.
 
HouseLogic will donate $1 to USA Cares every time someone “likes” the Operation Home Relief Cause page on Facebook and will match individual donations made to the cause, up to $20,000.
 
“Owning a home is part of the American dream, where we make memories, build our futures, and feel comfortable and secure; and any family who loses that dream to foreclosure is one family too many,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz. “HouseLogic’s Operation Home Relief aims to help sustain homeownership for military families who have already given so much to support our country, and we hope others will join together with us to support this worthy cause.”
 
When people lose homes to foreclosure, the community, the housing market and the economy all suffer. HouseLogic’s Foreclosure Guide highlights personal stories and offers information and tips to help homeowners facing foreclosure make smart, proactive decisions about what steps to take, where to find help and the alternatives to foreclosure. The guide also includes ideas for how others can get involved to combat foreclosures in their community.
 
“U.S. military service members bravely face danger around the world every day on behalf of all Americans. Yet, some military service members and their families also face financial dangers and hardships at home,” said William H. Nelson, executive director, USA Cares. “USA Cares’ sole mission is to help these service members and their families in their time of financial need. To that end, we’re excited to have the support of HouseLogic and the National Association of Realtors®. Their new Facebook Causes campaign highlights the work USA Cares is doing, reminding Americans of the many challenges faced by U.S. military service members and their families, and generates support via Facebook for the help that we’re offering every day.”
 
For more information on sustaining homeownership, and many other housing topics, visit HouseLogic at www.houselogic.com.
 
HouseLogic is a free source of information and tools for homeowners from the National Association of Realtors® that helps homeowners make smart decisions about all aspects of their home. HouseLogic helps homeowners plan and organize their home projects and provides timely articles and news; home improvement advice and how-to’s; and information about taxes, home finances and insurance.
 
USA Cares is a nonprofit 501(c)3 organization that helps post-9/11 military and their families with basic needs, assists veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and traumatic brain injury (TBI) and their families and works to prevent private military home foreclosures and evictions. In seven years, USA Cares has received over 24,000 requests and responded with more than $7 million in grants. Military families anywhere in America can apply for assistance through the USA Cares web site, www.usacares.org or by calling 800-773-0387. For more information on USA Cares contact John Revell, jrevell@usacares.org or call 270-352-5451.
 
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section.
    
 

Visit my web site for real estate services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA] and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land, Investment).
 

Copyright 2010 by Lawrence Yerkes. All Rights Reserved.

Pending Home Sales Show Another Gain

Pending home sales have increased for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®(NAR).
 
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* a forward-looking indicator, rose 4.3 percent to 82.3 based on contracts signed in August from a downwardly revised 78.9 in July, but is 20.1 percent below August 2009 when it was 103.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.
 
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the latest data is consistent with a gradual improvement in home sales in upcoming months. “Attractive affordability conditions from very low mortgage interest rates appear to be bringing buyers back to the market,” he said. “However, the pace of a home sales recovery still depends more on job creation and an accompanying rise in consumer confidence.”
 
Although Yun expects a continuing steady rise in home sales from favorable affordability conditions and some job creation, he cautioned any sudden rise in mortgage rates could slow the recovery. “Current low consumer price inflation has helped keep mortgage interest rates very attractive this year. However, recent rising trends in producer prices at the intermediate and early stages of production, along with very high commodity prices, are raising concerns about future inflation and future mortgage interest rates,” he said. “Higher inflation would mean higher mortgage interest rates. In the meantime, housing affordability is hovering near record highs.”
 
The PHSI in the Northeast declined 2.9 percent to 60.6 in August and remains 28.8 percent below August 2009. In the Midwest the index rose 2.1 percent in August to 68.0 but is 26.5 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 6.7 percent to an index of 90.8 but are 13.1 percent below August 2009. In the West the index rose 6.4 percent to 101.1 but remains 19.6 percent below a year ago.
 
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
NOTE: The next Pending Home Sales Index will be released November 5 at 12:30 p.m. EDT from NAR’s 2010 Conference & Expo in New Orleans; a news conference there begins at noon EDT, which also will cover the 2011 housing and economic forecast. Existing-home sales for September will be reported October 25.
NAR’s statistical news release schedule for 2011 is being distributed October 5. Dates for existing-home sales and the pending home sales index are being moved up, and there will be an additional release this year for pending home sales on December 30, 2010.
Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data, tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.

Visit my web site for real estate services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA] and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land, Investment).

Copyright 2010 by Lawrence Yerkes. All Rights Reserved.