The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity [1] declined 1.3 percent to an index of 101.5 in the second quarter from a downwardly revised reading of 102.8 in the first quarter, and is 13.7 percent below the 117.6 recorded in the second quarter of 2008. The index is at the lowest level since the first quarter of 1994; NAR’s track of the commercial leading indicator dates back to 1990.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, noted the pace of decline moderated, but the leading indicator has fallen sharply and quickly from the peak, suggesting much lower business opportunities for commercial real estate practitioners engaged in leasing, sales and property management. “The reduction in commercial real estate activity is expected at least through the first quarter of 2010. Any meaningful recovery is not likely to occur before the second half of next year.”
The decline is driven by falling industrial production, far fewer jobs requiring office and retail space, a fall in durable goods shipments, much lower personal spending, lower retail and wholesale sales, and a negative return on commercial investment.
“With the economic recession likely coming to an end within six months, a recovery in commercial real estate may soon follow,” Yun said. “The office sector requires job growth to fuel the demand for additional space, the industrial sector needs a rise in production and the retail sector is tied to consumer spending. Multifamily housing – the apartment market – often performs in reverse to trends in home sales, but can improve if there is sufficient household growth.”
The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, a separate attitudinal survey of more than 650 local market experts, [2] also suggests a lower level of business activity in upcoming quarters. Most respondents are seeing sales prices that are lower than replacement costs, and 96 percent report deep rental discounts and increased tenant concessions.
The SIOR index has declined for 10 consecutive quarters and stood at 36.0 in the second quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace.
Realtors® Commercial Alliance Committee chair Robert Toothaker said it is crucial to improve the availability of funds for commercial loans. “Properties with positive cash flow have had trouble finding financing to roll over debt, transactions are essentially at a standstill and new development is virtually nonexistent in most areas,” he said.
“Commercial loans are mostly short term, and without ready financing even the most experienced commercial players can get into trouble. The Fed's recent decision to extend the TALF program for commercial mortgage backed securities beyond the end of 2009 is highly welcome because the flow of liquidity to commercial real estate will be critical for a sustainable economic recovery,” Toothaker said. “However, unless there is a tremendous short-term recovery in the CRE markets, we expect the Fed will be revisiting the issue of another extension of the TALF program early in 2010.”
Bond yields on CMBS rose following the announcement by the Federal Reserve on August 17 that it is extending TALF lending for existing commercial securities through March 31, 2010, and for newly issued CMBS through June 30.
Looking at the broad market, commercial vacancy rates continue to rise while rents decline, according to NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK. [3] The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research.
Yun projects the unemployment rate to peak around 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter, then gradually improve as 2010 progresses. “We will need sustained economic growth before many employers have enough confidence to expand the job base and create new demand for space,” he said.
The gross domestic product should contract 2.9 percent in 2009 before growing 1.5 percent next year. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is forecast to decline 0.5 percent this year before rising 2.0 percent in 2010.
Office Market
The office sector continues to suffer the most from job losses, which reduces the demand for space. Vacancy rates will probably increase from 15.5 percent in the second quarter to 18.8 percent in the second quarter of 2010.
Annual rent in the office sector is projected to fall 14.1 percent this year and 10.0 percent in 2010 after a 0.4 percent decline last year. In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is estimated to be a negative 75.0 million square feet in 2009 and a negative 47.2 million next year.
Industrial Market
The contracting global economy has constricted the industrial sector. Vacancy rates are likely to rise from 13.0 percent in the second quarter of this year to 15.0 percent in the second quarter of 2010.
Annual industrial rent should fall 11.4 percent this year and another 11.7 percent in 2010, after declining 0.8 percent in 2008. Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is seen at a negative 300.0 million square feet this year, and a negative 112.0 million in 2010. Because much construction in recent years was customized to meet specific industrial needs, many obsolete structures remain on the market.
Retail Market
Given a pattern of weak consumer spending, the retail vacancy rate is forecast to edge up from 11.7 percent in the second quarter to 12.9 percent in the same period of 2010. Average retail rent is likely to fall 6.1 percent in 2009 and 4.9 percent next year; it declined 2.0 percent in 2008. Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is expected to be a negative 25.9 million square feet this year and a negative 3.6 million in 2010.
Multifamily Market
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is facing higher home sales by first-time buyers, but also is experiencing increased demand from families who have lost their homes. Multifamily vacancy rates should slip from 7.4 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 7.1 percent in the second quarter of next year.
Average rent is projected to decline 1.5 percent this year, then rise 0.8 percent in 2010, following a 2.9 percent gain in 2008. Multifamily net absorption is forecast at 168,300 units in 59 tracked metro areas in 2009 and 64,600 next year.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community. NAR's Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.
The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.
More than 81,000 NAR and institute affiliate members offer commercial brokerage services.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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1 NAR’s commercial leading indicator is a tool to assess market behavior in the major commercial real estate sectors. That index incorporates 13 variables that reflect future commercial real estate activity, weighted appropriately to produce a single indicator of future market performance, and is designed to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in commercial real estate.
The 13 series in the index are industrial production, the NAREIT (National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts) price index, NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) total return, personal income minus transfer payments, jobs in financial activities, jobs in professional business service, jobs in temporary help, jobs in retail trade, jobs in wholesale trade, initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers’ durable goods shipment, wholesale merchant sales, and retail sales and food service.
NAR reviewed a wide variety of indicators, examined the relationships of indicators that demonstrated a historical impact on commercial real estate, and modeled a forward-looking index based on historic trends. Although individual indicators sometimes move in opposite directions, together they offer a better indication of future market activity.
Quarterly data for 13 selected series were reviewed back through the first quarter of 1990. The modeling demonstrated a change in commercial brokerage activity that could be seen two quarters later as measured by net absorption in the industrial and office sectors, and the completion of new commercial buildings as measured by the value of building construction put-in-place of office, warehouse, retail and lodging structures. An index of 100 is defined as the level of commercial real estate market activity during the first quarter of 1990, the first period to be analyzed.
2 The SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, conducted by SIOR and analyzed by NAR Research, is a diffusion index based on market conditions as viewed by local SIOR experts. For more information, contact Richard Hollander, SIOR, at 202/449-8200.
3 Publication of additional analysis, including metropolitan data, will be posted under Economists’ Commentary in the Research area of Realtor.org in coming weeks.
The next commercial leading indicator index, forecast and market report will be released on November 19.
Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data, tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.
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