Realty Reality: July 2009

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Federal Reserve Beige Book Report July 2009 Report

Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to be weak going into the summer, but most Districts indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level. Five Districts used the words "slow", "subdued", or "weak" to describe activity levels; Chicago and St. Louis reported that the pace of decline appeared to be moderating; and New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco pointed to signs of stabilization. Minneapolis said the District economy had contracted since the last report.

Most Districts reported sluggish retail activity. Cleveland, Richmond, and Minneapolis noted further declines in sales, although results were somewhat mixed or positive according to retailers in the Boston, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts. Manufacturing activity showed some improvement in the Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts; while St. Louis and Dallas reported some moderation of declines; Philadelphia and Minneapolis saw activity decrease; and most other Districts indicated that manufacturing activity continued at low levels. Boston, Richmond, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco reported contractions in services industries. Banking sectors in the New York, Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts experienced weaker demand for some categories of loans. Residential real estate markets stayed soft in most Districts, although many noted some signs of improvement. By contrast, commercial real estate markets weakened further in recent months in two-thirds of the Districts and remained slow in the others.

Districts reported varied--but generally modest--price changes across sectors and products, with competitive pressures damping increases; however, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas noted that some metals prices have increased in recent months. Most Districts indicated that labor markets were extremely soft, with minimal wage pressures, and cited the use of various methods of reducing compensation in addition to, or instead of, freezing or cutting wages.

In the Philadelphia (Third District) region, economic conditions remained subdued in July. Manufacturers, on balance, reported declines in shipments and new orders. Retailers gave mixed reports, although sales were not strong overall. Motor vehicle dealers indicated that sales of new vehicles were slow. Bank loan volume has increased slightly. Credit quality has continued to deteriorate. Residential real estate sales increased in June and July as pent-up demand and seasonal factors boosted sales, according to local real estate agents, but the sales rate remained below the year-ago pace. Nonresidential real estate investment, leasing, and construction activity continued to be slow. Business firms in the region reported level or falling input costs and output prices in July.

The outlook in the Third District business community was slightly more positive in July than at the time of the previous Beige Book, although most contacts see little prospect of strong improvement in the immediate future. Manufacturers forecast a rise in shipments and orders during the next six months. Retailers expect sales to gain strength slowly, but auto dealers expect sales to remain slow for the rest of the year. Bankers anticipate demand for credit to remain limited until overall economic conditions improve, and they expect further weakening in credit quality as well. Residential real estate contacts believe housing demand is stabilizing, although they say a substantial increase in sales is not imminent. Contacts in nonresidential real estate expect leasing and purchase activity to remain weak during the rest of this year and perhaps move up early next year.

Source Beige Book

Click here for the Federal Reserve July 2009 Beige Book [Beige Book Archives]

See related blog articles:
Federal Reserve Beige Book For Economic Conditions (What is the "Beige Book"?)
The Federal Reserve - Making Sense In Plain English

Visit my web site for real estate services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA]

and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land).

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Existing-Home Sales Up Again

Existing-home sales rose for the third consecutive month with inventory easing and home prices declining less sharply in June, according to the National Association of Realtors®(NAR).

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate[1] of 4.89 million units in June from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May, but are 0.2 percent lower than the 4.90 million-unit level in June 2008.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is hopeful about the gain. “The increase in existing-home sales occurred in all major regions of the country,” he said. “We expect a gradual uptrend in sales to continue due to tax credit incentives and historically high affordability conditions. Despite the rise in closed transactions, many Realtors® are reporting lost sales as a result of new appraisal standards that went into effect May 1 of this year.”

A June survey of NAR members shows 37 percent experienced at least one lost sale as a result of the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct, with seven out of 10 reporting an increased use of out-of-area appraisers. Seventy percent of NAR appraiser members said consumers were paying higher fees, while 85 percent report a perceived reduction in appraisal quality.

“Clearly the process needs to be revised, but the most logical approach is to use appraisers with local expertise, industry designations and access to local data, who make a physical examination of the property and use apples-to-apples comparisons with nearby home sales,” Yun said. “In many cases, normal homes are being compared with distressed homes sold at a discount, which often are in subpar condition – this is causing real harm to both buyers and sellers.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.42 percent in June from 4.86 percent in May; the rate was 6.32 percent in June 2008. Mortgage interest rates have trended lower in recent weeks.

Total housing inventory at the end of June fell 0.7 percent to 3.82 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply[2] at the current sales pace, down from a 9.8-month supply in May. Raw inventory totals are 14.9 percent below a year ago.

“This is another hopeful sign – if we can keep the volume of sales above the level of new inventory, prices could stabilize in many areas around the end of the year,” Yun said.

An NAR practitioner survey in June showed first-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of transactions, unchanged from May, and that the number of buyers looking at homes is up nearly 12 percentage points from June 2008.

NAR President Charles McMillan said there are very good opportunities. “Despite some of the challenges, the housing market continues to demonstrate signs of recovery,” he said. “The temporary first-time buyer tax credit is clearly helping people make a decision and is contributing to the overall stimulus impact, but since it’s taking longer to close transactions, many would-be beneficiaries may not be able to take advantage of the credit before the December 1 expiration date. As a consequence, consumers need the expertise of Realtors® more than ever to navigate both the obstacles and opportunities in today’s market.”

The national median existing-home price[3] for all housing types was $181,800 in June, which is 15.4 percent below June 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 31 percent of sales in June, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.

Single-family home sales rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.32 million in June from a level of 4.22 million in May, and are 0.2 percent higher than the 4.31 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $181,600 in June, which is 15.0 percent below June 2008.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 14.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 570,000 units in June from 500,000 in May, but are 3.1 percent below the 588,000-unit level in June 2008. The median existing condo price[4] was $183,300 in June, down 18.9 percent from a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 2.5 percent to an annual pace of 820,000 in June, but are 4.7 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $249,400, down 5.9 percent from June 2008.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 0.9 percent in June to a level of 1.10 million but are 1.8 percent lower than June 2008. The median price in the Midwest was $157,000, which is 9.1 percent below a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.0 percent to an annual pace of 1.81 million in June but are 3.7 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $163,200, down 11.9 percent from June 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West improved by 6.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.16 million in June, and are 11.5 percent higher than June 2008. The median price in the West was $214,800, which is 24.9 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

NOTE: Any references to performance in states or metro areas are from unpublished raw data used to analyze regional trends; please contact your local association of Realtors® for more information.

1The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

2Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982.

3The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

4Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for July will be released August 21. The next Pending Home Sales Index & Forecast is scheduled for August 4; release times are 10 a.m. EDT.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data in this release, other tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.

Monday, July 20, 2009

IRS Reminds Taxpayers to Take Advantage of Recovery Act Benefits

WASHINGTON — With 2009 now half over, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) reminds taxpayers to take advantage of the numerous tax breaks made available earlier this year in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).

The recovery law provides tax incentives for first-time homebuyers, people purchasing new cars, those interested in making their homes more energy efficient and parents and students paying for college. But all of these incentives have expiration dates so taxpayers should take advantage of them while they can. (Source: IRS IR-2009-67)

Full Story...

Friday, July 17, 2009

Housing Starts and Permits Up Sharply In June

July 17, 2009 - Nationwide housing starts and permits posted substantial gains in June as home builders responded to improved market conditions and the impending expiration of the first-time buyer tax credit, according to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department today. Commerce reported a 3.6 percent gain in overall housing starts to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000 units and an 8.7 percent gain in permit issuance to 563,000 units.

“The upcoming expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit on December 1st is encouraging some builders to get homes started now so that they can be completed in time for clients to take advantage of this attractive buying incentive,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “However, there is still much concern about the difficulty of financing new-home production and continuing weakness in the job market.”

“Today’s report was in keeping with our forecasts for some glimmers of improvement on the single-family side in the second quarter, and also with the results of our latest builder surveys,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Many remain very cautious, however, in the face of the severe tightening of credit for acquisition, development and construction financing and increased instances of low appraisals tied to improper use of distressed properties as comps, both of which threaten to derail a housing and economic recovery going forward.”

Single-family housing starts rose for a fourth consecutive month in June, posting a 14.4 percent gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 470,000 units, while single-family permits rose for a third consecutive month, posting a 5.9 percent gain to 430,000 units. Meanwhile, the multifamily side, which characteristically displays greater month-to-month volatility, posted a 25.8 percent decline in starts following an unsustainably large gain in the previous month, to 112,000 units. Multifamily permits rose 18.8 percent to 133,000 units from an abnormal low in May.

Regionally, housing starts were mixed, with the Northeast and Midwest posting big gains of 28.6 percent and 33.3 percent, respectively, and the South and West posting declines of 1.4 percent and 14.8 percent, respectively. However, the declines in both the South and West were entirely driven by dips in multifamily production.

Permit issuance was up across the board in June, with the Northeast posting a 5.4 percent gain, the Midwest a 3.4 percent gain, the South a nearly 14 percent gain and the West a nearly 2 percent gain.

Source: NAHB

Friday, July 10, 2009

Downpayment, Closing Costs Still Greatest Obstacles to Homeownership, NAR Survey Shows

Most Americans still consider having enough money for downpayment and closing costs to be the biggest obstacles to buying a home. That’s according to the 2009 National Housing Pulse Survey, an annual survey released today by the National Association of Realtors®(NAR).

The survey, which measures how affordable housing issues affect consumers, also found job security concerns to be the highest in seven years of sampling. Two-thirds of Americans think job layoffs and unemployment are a big problem; eight in 10 cite these issues as a barrier to homeownership.

“Homeownership is an investment in your future; however, saving for a downpayment and closing costs is still too great of an obstacle for 82 percent of house hunters looking to take advantage of the current market,” said NAR President Charles McMillan. “Monetizing the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit for downpayment or closing costs on FHA-insured mortgages is a positive first step. Our hope is that the tax credit will be extended and expanded to all home buyers and will help bring stability to the housing market and enable more Americans to achieve the dream of homeownership."

Despite the challenges with the economy and housing market, 83 percent of Americans still believe buying a home is a good financial decision. Three-fourths of those surveyed also believe now is a good time to buy a home, a number that has increased steadily the past two years. In fact, one-third of renters are thinking more about buying a home than they were a year ago.

While Americans are seeing more stability in the real estate market, uncertainty persists. The number of those who feel buying and selling activity has stabilized or stayed nearly the same has grown significantly, from 18 percent last year to 26 percent this year. However the majority (58 percent) report that activity in their market has slowed.

Regarding home sales, nearly eight in 10 say it’s harder to sell a home in their area today than it was a year ago, despite the fact that nearly three-fourths of respondents say home prices are less expensive. Large home inventories could be to blame; 44 percent cite concerns about the high number of homes and condos for sale in their area.

While nearly three-fourths of Americans are concerned about the local drop in home values, respondents expect to see more stability in the near future. Nearly seven in 10 expect local home prices to remain about the same in the next three months; only 18 percent expect prices to further decrease. The drop in prices has improved affordability, and consequently, concerns about the lack of affordable housing are the lowest they’ve been in seven years of polling – 34 percent say it’s one of their biggest worries, down from 41 percent two years ago.

Foreclosures remain a real concern among survey respondents. Slightly more than half (51 percent) say foreclosures are a big to moderate problem in their area. However, the rate of foreclosures is generally seen as stabilizing; 41 percent say the rate of foreclosures in their area is about the same as last year.

Ninety-two percent of respondents said neither they nor members of their immediate family have experienced a foreclosure in the past year, yet it is still a personal concern for many. One in five respondents said they are very or fairly worried that they will have difficulty making their mortgage payments over the next year. Thirty-two percent say it’s a big or moderate worry that they, or a member of their family, may have their home repossessed or foreclosed because they are unable to pay rising monthly mortgage payments.

In 2008, more than half of respondents (54 percent) were open to the federal government taking a more active role in overseeing mortgage and lending practices – the number dropped this year to 47 percent. This could be because 42 percent of Americans believe the country is back on the right track, more than double the number last year (16 percent).

Regarding financing, seven in 10 Americans cite a lack of confidence in their ability to be approved for a home loan as an obstacle to homeownership. The same number also say that banks are making it too hard to qualify for a loan (71 percent) and that fewer mortgage options offered by banks have made it harder for them to buy a home (71 percent). The perception of qualifying for a loan as a huge obstacle is especially high among minorities.

“Home buyers need protection from risky lending products but also need access to mortgages at a reasonable cost. While there has been some easing of credit in the mortgage market, the availability of credit continues to be an issue for many qualified home buyers,” said McMillan.

The 2009 National Housing Pulse Survey is conducted by American Strategies and Myers Research & Strategic Services for NAR’s Housing Opportunity Program. The telephone survey was among 1,250 adults living in the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

NAR’s Housing Opportunity Program, www.realtor.org/housingopportunity, was created in 2002 to encourage local Realtor® associations to create initiatives aimed directly at increasing housing opportunities available to consumers and making affordable housing more readily available in their communities.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Summertime Tax Tips Available on IRS.gov and Via E-Mail

WASHINGTON — The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is publishing summertime tax tips to provide useful and concise advice on topics that affect taxpayers.

Many people don’t think about their taxes until the start of the filing season in January. That can be a mistake. Steps such as checking your withholding, getting the proper receipts from charities, organizing all the records you will need or setting a personal tax strategy that can save money at tax time are most effective if they are done well before year’s end.

The IRS is publishing three tax tips per week this summer. Topics range from how parents can get credit for sending their kids to day camp to protecting yourself from identity theft.

Now you can receive IRS Tax Tips via e-mail as soon as they are published by signing up through the IRS e-news subscription page, e-News Subscriptions. When subscribing, a confirmation message will be sent via e-mail. Verification must be sent in response in order to confirm a subscription.

Reference: IRS IR-2009-64

Visit my web site for real estate services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA]

and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land).

Friday, July 03, 2009

Public-Private Investment Program Losing Steam: Wary Banks Hobble Toxic-Asset Plan

The government's plan to enable banks to dump troubled assets is facing troubles of its own. Markets initially rallied when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced in March a two-pronged plan to offer favorable government financing to entice investors to buy bad loans and toxic securities from banks. But that initiative -- called the Public-Private Investment Program, or PPIP -- has lost momentum... (Source: WSJ)

Full Story

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Pending Home Sales Record Fourth Straight Monthly Gain

Pending home sales show a sustained uptrend, rising for four consecutive months with very favorable housing affordability and a first-time buyer tax credit boosting activity, according to the National Association of Realtors®(NAR).

The Pending Home Sales Index,[1] a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in May, increased 0.1 percent to 90.7 from an upwardly revised reading of 90.6 in April, and is 6.7 percent higher than May 2008 when it was 85.0. The last time there were four consecutive monthly gains was in October 2004.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, cautions that there could be delays in the number of contracts that go to closing. “Closed existing-home sales have improved but are coming in lower than expected because some contracts are delayed or falling through from the application of new appraisal rules for many transactions,” he said. “Rises in contract activity show buyers are becoming more active even as they face much more stringent loan underwriting standards. Speedy clarification of the appraisal rules could smooth a housing market recovery and support the overall economy.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast rose 3.1 percent to 80.9 in May and is 6.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index slipped 1.3 percent to 89.2 but is 11.4 percent above May 2008. The index in the South declined 1.7 percent to 92.6 in May but is 7.9 percent higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 2.2 percent to 96.9 and is 0.7 percent above May 2008.

NAR President Charles McMillan said the appraisal issue is complicated. “We see that distressed homes often are selling for 20 percent less than normal homes in the same area, but some appraisals don’t distinguish between traditional homes and distressed property,” he said. “In many cases appraisers from outside the area are being used, but as everyone knows real estate is local and appraisals should be done by an expert with local expertise.”

McMillan said sellers shouldn’t hesitate to speak with an appraiser about their home. “Sellers should feel free to tell an appraiser about improvements and renovations to their home, and how it compares with other homes in the neighborhood,” he said.

“Also, if recent sales in the neighborhood were discounted, but not similar to your home in terms of quality or condition, that should be pointed out. It wouldn’t hurt to put all this in writing, especially if an appraiser is not familiar with your area. A Realtor® could offer guidance and information to help you with this process.”

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index [2] remains at historic highs. The affordability index fell to 171.6 in May from an upwardly revised 178.8 in April, which was the highest on record dating back to 1970. “Under these conditions the typical family would devote only 14.6 percent of gross income to mortgage principal and interest, which is one of the lowest percentages on record,” Yun said.

The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income.

A median-income family, earning $60,800, could afford a home costing $296,700 in May with a 20 percent downpayment, assuming 25 percent of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80 percent of what a median-income family can afford. The affordable price was significantly higher than the median existing single-family home price in May, which was $172,900.

The first-time buyer tax credit also is benefiting the market. “Strong activity by entry level buyers is helping to absorb inventory and allow some existing owners to make a trade,” Yun said.

Existing-home sales should trend up through the end of the year, with normal local market differences. “The big question is how much the appraisal issue will impact the ability of contracts to go to closing,” Yun said. “We are currently conducting a study to assess the degree to which new appraisal rules are impacting home sales.”

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

1The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

2The Housing Affordability Index is a relative index where a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home, taking into account the relationship between median home price, average effective interest rate for loans closed on existing homes, and median family income. The higher the index, the better housing affordability is for buyers.

The calculation assumes a downpayment of 20 percent and a qualifying ratio of 25 percent of gross income for mortgage principle and interest payments. The index is a general gauge with conditions varying widely around the country. Affordability conditions are lower for first-time buyers with smaller downpayments and less income.

Monthly publication of the index began in 1981 with annual data calculated back to 1970.

Existing-home sales for June will be released July 23; the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on August 4.

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

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The information contained in Real Estate CyberTips is believed to be true and correct but no warranties or guarantees are provided and readers should rely solely on their own information and advisors in connection with any sites, services or products reviewed. All content Copyright 2009, RECS. All rights reserved.

Visit my web site for additional services and support: LawrenceYerkes.com [NJ/PA]

and visit Besthomes-NJ.com to find the latest New Jersey Real Estate property listings (Residential, Commercial, Multi-Family, Farm, Land).

Realty Reality